SpaceX Lockup Clock, Nasdaq-100 Add, and Semis Beat AI Software ETFs

This update is a roundup of same-day reporting from the linked sources below, with editorial context from the CPJ Stock Desk.

SpaceX’s post-IPO narrative is shifting fast, with insider selling windows opening just as the stock joins the Nasdaq-100, and new data showing chip-focused investors have had a far better year than those betting on AI software.

Key points

SpaceX (SPCX) is trading near $161, roughly 25% below its June 16 closing high of $211.39, as early IPO momentum fades.
An accelerated lockup expiry will allow SpaceX insiders to begin selling shares imminently, adding supply-side pressure at a moment when retail sentiment is already softening.
SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, which will force index funds to buy shares mechanically regardless of price.
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) returned 153.6% over the past year, well ahead of the Roundhill AI software-focused CHAT ETF, though with higher volatility and a steeper drawdown.
Anthropic’s early-stage talks with Samsung to produce a custom chip on Samsung’s 2-nanometer process continue to develop, with cost reduction and Nvidia independence cited as key motivations.

SpaceX: Two forces pulling in opposite directions on July 7

The date that index-fund buyers have been circling is the same date insiders can start cashing out. SpaceX’s Nasdaq-100 inclusion on July 7 will require passive funds tracking that index to purchase shares, providing a mechanical bid. But the accelerated lockup schedule means early investors and employees gain the ability to sell into that demand rather than waiting for a standard post-IPO window to close.

Whether the forced buying from index rebalancing outweighs insider supply is the near-term question investors are watching. The stock has already disappointed relative to its June peak. The IPO launched with expectations of meme-stock behavior given Elon Musk’s involvement, but that dynamic has not materialized. A five-star analyst has set a fresh price target on the stock, though the sources available do not specify the exact figure. Investors weighing entry here should factor in that the July 7 Nasdaq-100 add is now widely known, meaning much of the mechanical-buying effect may already be priced in.

Does SOXX vs. CHAT settle the chips-over-software debate?

One year of return data is a short window, but the gap is striking. SOXX’s 153.6% return against the CHAT ETF’s trailing performance reflects a broader pattern this cycle: the companies building and supplying AI infrastructure have captured more investor return than those selling AI-enabled software subscriptions. The caveat is real. SOXX carries higher volatility and suffered a steeper maximum drawdown over the period, meaning investors in the semiconductor basket had to stomach sharper swings to capture that outperformance.

For investors thinking about AI exposure through ETFs rather than individual stocks, this comparison is a useful reference point. It does not mean semiconductors will continue to lead, and the AI software category includes very different business models within a single fund wrapper.

Micron tailwind reaches Lam Research

Separately, Micron’s strong demand signals for memory manufacturing are benefiting Lam Research, whose equipment is used in producing the high-bandwidth memory that AI accelerators require. Lam shares have more than doubled in 2026, according to the source. This is consistent with the broader theme that AI infrastructure spending is flowing through the supply chain, reaching equipment makers that are one step removed from the headline chip names.

Anthropic-Samsung: still early, still relevant

The Anthropic-Samsung chip discussions covered in yesterday’s edition have additional detail worth noting. Samsung’s 2-nanometer process is the specific technology under consideration, positioning this as a direct play on cutting-edge fabrication. For AI developers, building proprietary silicon is a multi-year project, and early talks do not guarantee a product. But the strategic logic is clear: reducing per-token inference costs and lowering dependence on Nvidia hardware are priorities across the major AI labs. If Anthropic proceeds, Samsung gains a high-profile AI customer at a moment when TSMC dominates advanced node orders.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.