Nvidia's 70% Growth Guide, PLTR Momentum, and SpaceX Lockup Watch

Nvidia’s guidance of roughly 70% revenue growth is back in focus this weekend, while the AI rally’s reach is being tested by chip-equipment names and the SpaceX post-IPO lockup clock ticks toward September 9.

Key points

• Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of $96.2B, more than doubling year-over-year, with forward guidance pointing to roughly 70% growth, according to a Seeking Alpha analysis published today.
• Palantir is flagged as approximately 0.6% undervalued on GF Value, with the technology sector posting a strong 6.36% gain in August driven by earnings strength.
• KLA gained 7.3% and Lam Research rose 5.1% on September 4, both comfortably ahead of Nvidia’s 0.8% move that session, raising questions about whether the AI rally is broadening into the equipment layer.
• SpaceX insiders and early investors are actively selling shares while index funds accumulate, ahead of a key September 9 date that has attracted significant market attention.
• Elon Musk is cited as a named risk factor in SpaceX’s prospectus, a detail buried in the IPO filings now reaching retail investors through 401(k) exposure.

Does Nvidia’s guidance justify its valuation at scale?

The number that stands out in today’s Nvidia coverage is not the revenue figure itself but the growth rate attached to it. Doubling revenue to $96.2B is already an exceptional outcome for a company of this size. Guiding for roughly 70% further growth from that elevated base is the kind of number that forces analysts to revisit discount rate assumptions.

The Seeking Alpha piece rates the stock a strong buy on that basis, though investors should treat any single analyst’s rating as one input among many. The more durable signal is whether hyperscaler capex commitments continue to underwrite Nvidia’s order book. So far, the data points in that direction, but the gap between guidance and delivery is where execution risk lives.

Is the AI rally finally broadening beyond the usual names?

The single-session outperformance by KLA and Lam Research on September 4 is worth examining carefully. These are not AI accelerator companies. KLA sells process-control equipment and Lam Research sells fabrication tools, both of which are required to manufacture the advanced logic, memory, and packaging that AI chips depend on. When equipment names move ahead of the chip designers themselves, it can signal that investors are pricing in a longer, more capital-intensive buildout rather than a short-cycle trade.

One session is not a trend. But combined with Broadcom’s well-documented AI revenue trajectory (covered in prior editions this week) and Palantir’s momentum-driven outperformance, the pattern at least raises the possibility that capital is rotating toward the picks-and-shovels layer of the AI supply chain.

What does the SpaceX lockup expiration mean for investors?

SpaceX launched its IPO roughly three months ago, and September 9 is emerging as a date investors are watching closely. Lockup expirations routinely create short-term selling pressure as insiders and early-stage investors gain the ability to exit. The current signal from those groups is clear: they are net sellers. Index funds, by contrast, are absorbing shares as they are added to benchmarks, which provides a structural bid underneath the stock.

Whether that dynamic creates a durable buying opportunity or simply offsets insider supply depends on the pace of selling. Long-term investors considering a position around the lockup window should weigh that the Musk key-person risk disclosure is now reaching a much broader audience through 401(k) plan inclusion. That is not a reason to avoid the stock, but it is a material risk factor that retail investors accessing SpaceX through retirement accounts may be encountering for the first time.

Palantir: momentum meets modest undervaluation

The GF Value signal on Palantir is thin on its own, a 0.6% discount is well within normal noise. What gives it more context is the 6.36% August gain for the technology sector, attributed in part to strong earnings reports. Palantir’s AI platform business has been a consistent source of upside surprises in recent quarters. Whether the momentum is sustainable depends on whether commercial contract growth continues to close the gap with its government revenue base. That is the metric worth tracking in the next earnings cycle.

Nothing on this site is investment advice. This update is for informational purposes only.