TSMC Record Profit, ASML $2K Target, Apple Chip Hunt: July 16

Several threads in the AI semiconductor supply chain converged today: TSMC heads into earnings with record profit expectations, ASML is fielding a $2,000 price target after raising guidance, Apple is reportedly shopping for AI chip acquisitions, and SpaceX continues to slide below its IPO price.

Key points

• TSMC is expected to report a record Q2 net profit, driven by strong demand for its 3nm and 2nm processes and CoWoS advanced packaging, cementing its position as Asia’s most valuable listed company.
• ASML raised its 2026 sales forecast and pledged 30% capacity increases in each of the next two years, addressing fears of a lithography bottleneck in the AI buildout.
• A new price target suggests ASML could reach $2,000+ within 12 months, a level few sell-side analysts had publicly named before this week.
• Apple is reportedly pursuing acquisitions of AI chip companies to address performance gaps in its server processors, including delays to its in-house “Baltra” chip program.
• SpaceX shares fell below their $135 IPO price, now down 34% from a June peak of $201.80, as the post-debut enthusiasm fades.

Is TSMC’s earnings report a signal for Nvidia?

TSMC reporting a record quarter would be more than a headline for the foundry itself. A Seeking Alpha analysis published today argues that TSMC’s results and capital expenditure hike represent a positive signal for Nvidia, pointing to improved chip supply and a stronger data center revenue outlook. The logic is straightforward: TSMC manufactures the GPUs Nvidia designs, so rising foundry throughput and capex expansions directly ease the supply constraints that have periodically capped Nvidia’s ability to fulfill hyperscaler orders.

TSMC’s record profit expectations are built on demand for both its leading-edge logic nodes and CoWoS packaging, which is the process used to bond high-bandwidth memory to AI accelerators. Analysts note the strength is broad-based across AI and HPC customers, not concentrated in a single buyer. That breadth matters for investors trying to gauge whether the AI capex wave has staying power or is being driven by one or two large purchase orders.

What does ASML’s capacity pledge mean for the supply chain?

ASML’s announcement that it will grow lithography tool capacity by 30% annually for two consecutive years is a direct response to accelerating AI chip demand pulling orders forward. The company already raised its 2026 sales guidance, and the $2,000 price target circulating today reflects analysts recalibrating how fast that demand is materializing relative to prior Wall Street models.

The capacity increase matters beyond ASML’s own stock. EUV lithography tools are a hard constraint in the semiconductor supply chain. There is only one company in the world that makes them. If ASML cannot deliver machines fast enough, chipmakers from TSMC to Samsung to Intel cannot scale their advanced nodes regardless of how much they want to spend. A credible 30% capacity ramp over two years provides some relief to that bottleneck concern, though execution risk remains real given the complexity of EUV manufacturing.

Janus Henderson’s Global Sustainable Equity Fund, which highlighted Micron as a core AI infrastructure holding in its Q2 2026 letter, returned 16.17% in the quarter, outpacing its benchmark. The fund’s overweight in information technology, particularly AI-adjacent names, drove that outperformance. Micron’s role supplying HBM memory for AI accelerators keeps it tightly linked to the same TSMC and ASML demand cycle.

Apple’s chip acquisition hunt: what’s behind it?

According to a report from The Information, Apple is exploring deals with AI chip companies to improve its server-side AI processing. The company’s M2 Ultra chips have reportedly fallen short on performance for AI workloads, and its next-generation server chip (codenamed Baltra) has experienced delays. Apple previously struggled to run Google’s Gemini models efficiently on its own servers.

This is a notable shift. Apple has historically preferred in-house silicon development over acquisitions. Exploring external deals suggests the internal roadmap has hit real obstacles, not just incremental timing slippage. Apple holds substantial cash reserves, so the financial capacity for a deal exists. The question is which chip companies fit the profile. Names in the custom AI accelerator space would be the logical candidates, though the sources do not identify specific targets.

For investors, Apple moving into AI server chips more aggressively could eventually reduce its dependence on third-party inference infrastructure, but any acquisition would take years to integrate and ship at scale.

SpaceX: the post-IPO hangover continues

SpaceX shares crossed below the $135 IPO price today, completing a 34% round trip from the June high of $201.80. An upcoming Starship test flight, the first since the IPO, could offer a near-term catalyst, but the broader dynamic reflects a pattern Morningstar analyst Kenneth Lamont flagged: thematic ETFs tied to the SpaceX debut appealed to investors’ worst instincts and are now losing altitude along with the stock. High-valuation debut stocks tend to overshoot on enthusiasm and correct sharply once retail momentum fades. SpaceX is following that script closely.

Nothing here is investment advice. This update reflects publicly available information as of July 16, 2026.